Odds and Probability
Odds and probability are vital concepts in sports betting since they reflect the possibility of an event happening. Novice sports bettors should always bring these two when browsing betting markets to examine the house edge and the team’s chances. Each bet you make is crucial. And to help you become acquainted with the market, our NBA betting guide gives out lessons that introduces you to odds, probability, and sportsbook overround.
The relationship between odds and probability
Odds are expressed as the probability that an event will occur divided by the probability that the same event will not occur; basically, an “odds for” and an “odds against” involving the underdog and the favored team is the backbone of sports betting. Probability, on the other hand, is the measure of the likelihood that an event is going to happen. When used together, the odds on a selection comes from the probability of that selection winning. There is a reciprocal relationship between odds and probability. The favored team has a higher probability of winning so they get lower odds, while the underdog has a lower probability of winning so they get higher odds.
To make sense of what the odds and probability represent, take a look at this equation containing a constant value (100) variables affecting the betting value:
100 ÷ odds = probability %
Sportbook’s overround in NBA betting
In any given case, the sum of the probability for all possible results in an event must be 100%. In an NBA game, a draw is impossible to happen. This gives one team a 60% chance of winning the game and the other team with a 40% chance. This, however, doesn’t apply to sportsbook markets because they would make no money if the odds are represented in 100%. As a result, they give lower odds which represent a higher probability exceeding 100, giving the house edge an unfair advantage. The amount over 100%, therefore, is the sportsbook’s overround. Be sure that you are equipped with the right knowledge on odds and probability. Make each bet worth your bitcoins. Make each bet a winning bet.
Bettors need to treat the sportsbook’s overround as their nemesis. The higher the overround, the lower the odds and the profit. So make sure you always do odds comparisons and use the equation above before placing your NBA bet.